Research Article

ACTUARIAL UTILIZATION OF GM (1,2) MODEL IN SURVIVORSHIP ANALYSIS

Alfred Timzing Chakfa1*, Gbenga M. Ogungbenle2, F.M Abdulkarim3, A.A Muhammad3, Sirajo Bello Dabo3, S. Rawal4
1 Federal University Dutse
2 Actuarial Science Department, University of Jos
3 Federal University Dutse, Faculty of Management Sciences, Department of Actuarial Science
4 Tribhuvan University Nepal, School of Mathematical Sciences
* Corresponding author: chakfaalfred@gmail.com
Published: Apr, 2025
Pages: 33-45

Abstract

"This study aims to provide an analytical utilization of the GM (1,2) model in survivorship estimation, with specific objectives as to determining the force of mortality, estimating the number and curve of survivors, and ascertaining the number and curve of deaths. The data used in this research was sourced from the National Center for Health Statistics 2022 (United States) provisional life table. Data preprocessing and cleansing were conducted using the R statistical tool to ensure accuracy and reliability before analysis. The methodology centers on an analytical estimation approach adopting the GM (1,2) model, which allows for effective solving of limited data peculiar of mortality studies. The models' major parameters (A,B,C) and auxiliary parameters (k,s,g) were deduced following four equidistant backward simultaneous solution using survivorship values of lx which are l20, l40, l60, l80 as 98889, 95721,8665,54986 respectively to fully capture mortality trends across different age groups. The findings illustrate the GM (1,2) model's viability to estimate mortality dynamics. This study concludes that as age increases, the rate of deaths increases and exponentially increases as age goes older reaching omega (w) where lx becomes infinitesimally zero.

Keywords

GM (1 2) model Force of Mortality Survivors Curve of Death GM (1 2) Auxiliary Parameters

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How to Cite

Chakfa, A. T., Ogungbenle, G. M., Abdulkarim, F., Muhammad, A., Dabo, S. B., & Rawal, S. (2025). ACTUARIAL UTILIZATION OF GM (1,2) MODEL IN SURVIVORSHIP ANALYSIS. Nigerian Actuarial Journal, 2(1), 33-45.

A. T. Chakfa, G. M. Ogungbenle, F. Abdulkarim, A. Muhammad, S. B. Dabo, and S. Rawal, "ACTUARIAL UTILIZATION OF GM (1,2) MODEL IN SURVIVORSHIP ANALYSIS," Nigerian Actuarial Journal, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 33-45, April 2025.

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